Medicare For All

The Mercatus Center at George Mason University recently estimated the cost for the Democratic-Socialist’s Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez styled “Medicare for All” would be an additional $32 trillion over the next 10 years. Lets punch some numbers to put that into context:

  • CY 2016 U.S. GDP was $18,624.48 billion or $18.624.48 trillion.[1]
  • FY 2016, the total federal revenue was $3.267 trillion, with a $500+ billion deficit.[2]
  • $32 trillion over ten years is $3.2 trillion a year. Then, factor out the current Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, and marketplace subsidy expenditures, because “Medicare for All” would encompass these programs, which equals $1 trillion a year, of which $594 billion is for just Medicare expenses.[3]
  • This represents a net increase of $2.2 trillion in federal spending; or a total of, at least, 67.3% of the FY 2016. The increase in expenditures represents an 11.81% jump in spending as a percentage of the GDP, taking the new total, $5.467 trillion, as a percentage of GDP would then stand at 29.35%, up from 17.54%

In 2016 there were a total of 56,981,183 Medicare enrollees. According to The Government, in 2016 the U.S. population was approximately 324,650,630. That means 17.55% of the U.S. population was enrolled in Medicare, at a cost of $594 billion. Based on cost and enrollment, the average per-person amount was $10,424. Applying that total to the 2016 population estimate, that works to be $3.384 trillion; about $184 billion higher than projected by the Mercatus Center.

Ocasio-Cortez has an economics and international relations degree from Boston College. She may want to get her money back because she appears to lack any notion of basic economic principals and important international relations. UnemploymentHow to Pay for Medicare For AllViews on Israel

As shown below with the graphic, there would be a bevy of new taxes, tax increases, and elimination of large and popular tax credits/deductions. A startling point to consider is that even if the government were to seize 100% of the net worth of everyone on the 2017 Forbes 400 list, the funds obtained would have only paid for roughly 72% of federal expenditures in 2016, including the deficit for the year. [4]

The chart also does not account for any economic losses that would occur with such a massive government takeover.

Tax increase proposals by @Brian_Riedl

Last page of text from the Mercatus report. Paints a clear picture of how unaffordable this plan is. If anyone attempts to say that the plan saves money simply show them this and ask them to reconcile the two.

The VA handles my healthcare. It is a service that I am grateful for and I am extremely appreciative of the providers that choose to serve those that served the country. By working with veterans, they are passing on a career that could be far more lucrative, and far less political, than being a government employee. It is, however, far from perfect. For example, I made an appointment on July 31st to see a new provider because my previous one transferred to another location for personal reasons. Side note, he was a fantastic doctor. He was easier to talk to than any other doctor that I have ever had an appointment with. Thank you for your service Dr. A.. Anyways, the first appointment that works with my school schedule is in the middle of November, which is also baby #2’s due date. That is 106 days away from July 31st. This is the longest I have had before a regularly scheduled appointment. But, generally, for non-emergency medical issues there is almost always at least a 2 week wait. Many times it has been over a month before being able to schedule and appointment. Long waits for appointments and the widely reported VA scandals are the reality of government run healthcare on a large scale.

The Veterans Health Administration (VHA) is the largest integrated health care system in the United States, providing care at 1,243 health care facilities, including 172 VA Medical Centers and 1,062 outpatient sites of care of varying complexity (VHA outpatient clinics) to over 9 million Veterans enrolled in the VA health care program. [5]

The idea of government run healthcare is a nice idea and it may work at a national level in other countries. But to say that if significantly smaller countries with a nationalized healthcare system can make it work (and not have it be overly expensive), the United States, which is the third largest country by population, should be able to as well is not an honest argument.

As of July 1, 2016:

At #3, the United States – 322,179,605
At #21, The United Kingdom – 65,788,574 ≈ 20% the population of U.S.
At #38, Canada – 36,289,822 ≈ 11% the population of the U.S.


One thought on “Medicare For All

Leave a Reply